“The Robots Are Coming!” for All our Jobs
“The Robots Are Coming,” written by Andres Oppenheimer, a Miami Herald columnist and a member of its Pulitzer Prize winning team, is a comprehensive look at the anticipated widespread workplace disruptions by technology, especially virtual and augmented technologies riding on the backs of robots, some of whom are likely to become our supervisors.
Oppenheimer cites an algorithm provided by economists that shows jobs that have a 99% chance of being replaced by robots, drones, autonomous vehicles and other intelligent machines. The most at-risk category includes: telemarketers (who have already been replaced by robocalls in some countries), insurance underwriters, new account clerks, library technicians, and cargo and freight agents. These positions are at risk of being replaced “by computer programs capable of accumulating and processing data and making future projections much more accurately than humans.”
Jobs with 97% risk of being killed in the near future include: phone operators and store sales people, who in many cases are already being replaced by e-commerce or humanoid robots like Siri or Alexa. This list also includes real estate brokers and store cashiers, already rapidly being replaced by self-checkout stations.
According to Oppenheimer, this disruption will touch most people and professions sooner or later. The jobs of restaurant waiters are on the way out. Robots won’t be just replacing waiters; they will also be replacing chefs (96% risk according to the study). This risk level also includes secretaries, administrative assistants, receptionists, information clerks, and bank tellers. Taxi and truck drivers, who will be displaced by autonomous vehicles, are also at risk.
The author raises the obvious question about this predictive algorithm being somewhat ruthless, as in letting predicting the exit of 90 percent of waiters. Why wouldn’t we keep jobs that embody a human touch and a high degree of innovation and improvisation? The authors of the study apparently smiled at the question and reminded the author of many historical examples. For example, the number of people involved in agriculture in the U.S. fell from 60% in 1850 to 2% at the beginning of the twenty-first century. Perhaps more to the point was Oppenheimer’s trip to Japan, where he stayed in a hotel where the concierge, receptionists, bellhops and even the waiters were robots.
This is not especially breaking news. Robots have been with us for decades. Remember Deep Blue defeating chess champion Garry Kasparov in 1997. Since that time, robots have been winning in Scrabble contests, on Jeopardy and at bridge. The fact is: robots will be everywhere. They will be in the streets, perhaps directing traffic, in schools, hospitals and law firms. Cloud computing allows individual robots immediate access to unlimited data and experiences of the entire globe’s robotic population. Oppenheimer suggests it’s only a matter of time before technology surpasses human intelligence.
It’s not entirely rhetorical for Oppenheimer to raise the question of a jobless world. Some experts suggest that in the U.S. by 2025, half of all bank employees will be out of a job. This development will be hastened by the negative effect on banks by services such as Square, Google Wallet, Apple Pay, and Venmo. Facebook’s Libra would constitute a major disruption.
Real estate agents will be increasingly replaced by algorithms, cutting deeply into commissions (the current average of 6 percent reduced to 2 percent). Security guards at department stores, banks and apartments are already being replaced, as sensors become more sophisticated in detecting anomalies. And doctors are not immune from this disruptive technology. Oppenheimer writes that “While a physician makes his decisions based on his own experience and acquired knowledge, the Watson computer at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York makes its diagnosis based on the medical histories of 1.5 million patients and 2 million pages of academic articles published in scientific journals.”
In this brave new world, our virtual assistant will become knowledgeable enough about medical matters to answer our questions. Anesthesiologists will be replaced by robots. Johnson & Johnson introduced in 2013 an automatic sedation system that allows a doctor to monitor up to ten patients undergoing a colonoscopy. Because of pricing issues and objections from anesthesiologists, this product was discontinued but a newer version seems inevitable.
Oppenheimer examines the conflicting claims about the effect of technology on job creation. The skeptics can point to AT&T employing 758,000 while Google employs 55,000; Blockbuster had 60,000 employees, Netflix 5,400. The optimists cite the history of advances in industry and technology and argue that the skeptics are invariably wrong. Karl Marx and John Maynard Keynes were wrong in their prediction because technology created more jobs than it eliminated.
A contemporary argument might be that Apple, even though it has a relatively modest work force of 76,000, its products, platforms and applications have made it possible for millions of entrepreneurs to create hundreds of thousands of applications. 3-D printers and virtual reality headsets likely will create millions of new jobs. We can expect to have 3-D printers in our homes where we can make products to sell to others.
Oppenheimer’s research suggests that there will be more inequality in this new world. In one view, society will be divided into three general groups. The first will be the elite, who will be able to adapt and will earn the most money. The second group is made up primarily of those who provide personal services to the elite, such as trainers, piano teachers, Zumba instructors and the like. The third group will be mainly unemployed and might receive a universal basic income as compensation for being victims of technological unemployment. One historian and futurist has called the latter category “the useless class.”
The above has been prelude, a kind of philosophical frame for the rest of the book that examines a cross section of professions that will be severely impacted by technology, including the author’s profession, journalism. That the interviews in his book were transcribed by a machine, that the Washington Post bots are already writing political articles and that computers will cover football games reveals the specific and ongoing disruption of the space. Few professions will be spared. Oppenheimer suggests that psychologists and psychiatrists might be exceptions, but I wonder about that.
I was not surprised that the author suggests robot maintenance technician, alternative energy specialists, and data analysts and engineers as among the jobs of the future. I was a little surprised to see spiritual counselors but shouldn’t have been, given the bleakness of some of these predictions. God knows we will need them.
“The Robots Are Coming!” is a fascinating, timely book written by a seasoned journalist who brings a world view to his task. I thoroughly recommend it.
